Retail Investors Took a Beating in 2022. Will It Continue in 2023?
Retail investors have taken a beating in the past few years as the economy continues to struggle. But how will that affect investment trends in the next few years?
Consumer staples
If you’re interested in a sector that can provide a stable foundation for your portfolio, consumer staples could be the answer. These companies typically perform better than the overall market during periods of uncertainty and volatility. They tend to be large mature companies that are able to maintain a high level of profitability and revenue growth despite economic challenges.
Consumer staples include everything from household products to cosmetics and tobacco. The industry has been a leader this year thanks to food producers and beverage companies. In the past five years, the industry has been one of the least volatile sectors of the stock market.
However, that doesn’t mean these stocks won’t be impacted in the future. Rising inflation has put pressure on consumers. Costs for these items are going up, causing some companies to lose sales. While the increase in prices will affect the companies’ ability to pass them on to consumers, rising organic sales will help to balance out the effects.
Energy and materials sectors
The energy and materials sectors have been among the strongest sectors in the S&P 500, leading the index in May. Analysts expect that both industries will see their biggest year-over-year earnings gains in the fourth quarter.
The materials sector has benefited from rising prices of basic materials such as copper and oil. Companies in this industry also benefit from a diversified portfolio of operations, ensuring that profit margins remain strong. However, the sector can be challenged by economic fluctuations, supply chain issues, and high input costs.
A number of countries are implementing policies to accelerate the development of clean energy technologies. Inflation could help boost this sector as well.
The energy and materials sectors have historically been good bets during times of higher inflation. Oil has been climbing, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the glut of supplies has nearly normalized.
Meanwhile, copper prices climbed to record highs for the first time in more than a decade. This should help RS’s revenue. RS’s profit margins are expected to improve as a result of higher metal prices.
Financial policy tightening
In the short term, monetary policy has tightened in many advanced economies. This has been driven by higher interest rates and the need to maintain price stability. The number of central banks has also increased. However, in the medium term, financial conditions may tighten more sharply in some emerging markets.
Inflation is at record levels, primarily due to high food prices. Some emerging markets are already facing rising debt servicing burdens, and there is a possibility that inflationary pressures may continue to build.
Retail investors
Inflation may still be lower than the level of the pandemic, but the likelihood of an acceleration is still there. Many issuers are trading at distressed levels, and a rapid return to pre-pandemic debt dynamics could be difficult.
Increasingly, the balance of risks is skewed to the downside, highlighting the need to be careful. A disorderly tightening of financial conditions could exacerbate preexisting vulnerabilities. To minimize this risk, authorities should consider the appropriate tools to address market dysfunction.
Gold, core fixed income and emerging markets
While the global economy has not yet slipped into recession, investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the Fed’s ability to engineer a soft landing. Although many factors are in play, inflation and rate policy continue to be the most important concerns.
The Fed’s tightening strategy is causing investors to be concerned about the future of the dollar, particularly as the Fed begins to cut back on asset purchases. This will cause the economy to grow more slowly, which could create a scenario of lower equity prices.
Core fixed income yields have been rising sharply across the world. As a result, investors have driven risk assets lower, but some cyclical sectors have benefited.
Fixed income markets resumed a downdraft in the second quarter. Rising US interest rates, declining US consumer confidence, and the May US inflation print have contributed to the downdraft.
Despite the Fed’s pause, monetary policy will remain a primary concern for investors in 2023. Most emerging markets central banks look poised to keep their rates high for the foreseeable future. However, some EM countries may begin easing.
